May 1, 1998
Information in Financial Asset Prices
Proceedings of a conference held by the Bank of Canada, May 1998 (proceedings volume, available in electronic format only)
Uncategorized
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April 23, 1998
Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
My colleagues and I look forward to our yearly appearance before your committee because it gives us an opportunity to present an account of how the Bank has worked to fulfil its objectives over the past year. It is also an opportunity for a discussion with you on a range of economic and monetary issues. […] -
April 8, 1998
Second Discussion Paper Released on Government of Canada - Debt Auction Process
A second discussion paper outlining proposed changes in the rules for, and the surveillance of, auctions of Government of Canada securities was released for public comment today by the Bank of Canada. -
Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach
This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […] -
The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Stock
This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation, emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows the framework of a section in the Bank's 1990 Annual Report, "The benefits of price stability." -
March 25, 1998
The Future Performance of the Canadian Economy
It can take anywhere from one to two years for monetary actions to have their full effect on the economy. Because of this, the conduct of monetary policy must be based on a view of what the economy will be like - not tomorrow, not in a month - but rather in one to two years' time. -
The Financial Services Sector: Past Changes and Future Prospects
The financial services industry has been undergoing significant change in recent years. This paper analyzes some key developments affecting the industry and examines some important issues facing the industry and its regulators. -
The Canadian Banking System
This paper examines the major changes in the Canadian banking system since the Second World War, with special attention paid to the differences between Canadian and U.S. developments over this period. -
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy
Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] -
February 5, 1998
International developments and the prospects for the Canadian economy
A year ago, in early 1997, prospects for global economic growth were very promising. World economic activity had strengthened and was expected to accelerate further, with the benefit of low inflation, reduced fiscal imbalances, and stable or declining interest rates. In Canada too, output and employment growth had picked up.