Global growth is expected to remain solid, supported by the boom in investment in artificial intelligence and by fiscal stimulus in several major economies.
The Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs and the new global trade landscape. This adjustment will take time and growth is expected to be modest. Inflation is projected to remain near the 2% target.
The outlook for the Canadian economy is evolving largely as anticipated. Economic growth is expected to average around 1¼% over the projection horizon, and inflation remains near 2%.
With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico under review, risks around the outlook are unusually high.
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.
Canadian businesses continue their efforts to expand exports to countries other than the United States. Trade tensions are also leading Canadian businesses to rely less on US imports.
The future of Canada’s trade agreement with the United States and Mexico is unclear. A review of the agreement could lead to many possible outcomes, and these can have a wide range of impacts on the Canadian economy.
This guide explains the questions you will need to answer in PSP Connect and helps identify the documents and information needed to complete and submit an annual report to the Bank of Canada. You are required to submit your completed annual report form to the Bank by March 31 each year.
Results of the fourth-quarter 2025 survey show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers. As a result, even though labour market conditions improved somewhat, the CSCE indicator declined slightly. Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long-term inflation eased below pre-pandemic levels.