Posts

• September 21, 2026

  Adapting to structural forces, navigating uncertainty

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how businesses and households are adapting to the long-term forces reshaping the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
• September 21, 2026

  Navigating uncertainty and adapting to change

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how Canadian businesses and households have adapted to structural forces. He then explores how a re-escalation in trade tensions and high energy prices are shifting risks and considers the implications for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
• September 21, 2026

  Speech: Tiff Macklem, Governor

  Halifax Partnership
  Halifax, NS

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• September 18, 2026

  The AI transformation

  

  Artificial intelligence is changing how much we produce and what work humans do. But we don’t yet know all the ways AI will affect the economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth

• Automation and Inequality: How Robots Shift Income Between Workers and Owners

  Staff working paper 2026-34 Gabriela Galassi, Gaelan MacKenzie

  This paper examines the direct effects of industrial robot adoption on workers and owners within Canadian private corporations. Adoption increases firm scale and per-worker payroll but does not decrease the labor share of value added. Conventional accounting of labor income earned by owners masks the impact on non-owner workers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• A New Approach to Estimating Portfolio-Balance Models of the Yield Curve

  Staff working paper 2026-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Portfolio-balance models of the yield curve are notoriously hard to estimate. This paper offers a simple, two-step estimation approach that can be implemented with standard term structure estimation methods. In our application to U.S. Treasury data, our method recovers economically interpretable drivers of the yield curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods

• Liquidity Optimization in Gross Settlement Systems with Quantum Reordering: Application to TARGET2∗

  Staff working paper 2026-32 Valerio Astuti, Adriano Baldeschi, Luca Bastianelli, Giuseppe Bruno, Riccardo Russo, Ajit Desai, Danica Marsden

  Building on our earlier quantum algorithm, this paper shows that reordering queued payments can significantly reduce liquidity needs. The algorithm performs well on smaller payment batches, while traditional algorithms can process larger batches and deliver greater savings. Machine learning also helps identify which payment patterns offer the greatest potential for improvement.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures

• Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

  Staff working paper 2026-31 Guillermo Calvo, Emilio Colombi, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello

  We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E31, E4, E44, F, F3, F32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting

• Climate Change and Monetary Policy: Navigating Physical Risks

  Staff analytical paper 2026-44 Tatjana Dahlhaus

  Weather-related disasters can reduce output while increasing inflation, creating difficult trade-offs for monetary policy. This note reviews evidence on the macroeconomic effects of physical climate risks and uses a structural model to assess how more frequent and severe disasters could shape future monetary policy challenges.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E1, E12, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change

• Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID): Identifying Trend Inflation from the Price Index

  Staff analytical paper 2026-43 André Binette, Colleen Smith

  This note presents Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID), a data-driven tool for assessing trend inflation. SID uses time-series segmentation to divide the price index into contiguous segments with stable inflation rates. Based on data through December 2025, SID indicates that Canada’s trend inflation has been near 2 percent since early 2024.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures