We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.
We propose a simple, model-free way to measure price selection and its impact on inflation. Price selection exists when prices that change in response to aggregate shocks are not representative of the overall population of prices. Due to selection, increases (decreases) in inflation can be amplified because adjusting prices tend to originate from levels far below (above) the average.