E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev

  This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52

• Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess

  In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F41

• Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek

  In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33

• Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-19 Wei Dong, James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek

  Firms increasingly rely on digital technologies such as e-commerce, cloud computing, big data, digital tracking and digital platforms that are reshaping business operations, business models and market structures. In this context, the Bank of Canada consulted with firms in wholesale, retail and logistics, as well as with related industry associations to yield insights on the adoption of digital technologies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, L9, L92, O, O3, O33