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Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach

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This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian long bonds and the 90-day commercial paper rate is particularly useful in predicting Canadian recessions. This result is consistent with those of Estrella and Mishkin (1998).

Also published as:

Canadian Business Economics (0705-8330)
February 2001. Vol. 8, Iss. 3, pp. 30-36