Michael Ehrmann

Chief

Michael Ehrmann was appointed Chief of Economic and Financial Research in April 2015. In this capacity, he works with policy department chiefs, research directors and their departmental teams to develop and execute a leading-edge research work plan to support all of the Bank’s policy functions.

An internationally recognized economist, Mr. Ehrmann’s primary research interests include international finance, central bank communication and monetary policy transmission. His research has been published in leading academic journals, including The Journal of Finance, The Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

He joined the Bank in August 2013 from the European Central Bank, where he was Head of its Financial Research Divisionand oversaw the development of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, a joint initiative of the central banks of the euro area. He was also a consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and held a teaching appointment at Goethe University Frankfurt. Before his current appointment, he was a Director in the Bank of Canada’s International Economic Analysis department (INT).

Born in Ulm, Germany, Mr. Ehrmann holds a Ph.D. in economics from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.

Biographical note: Michael Ehrmann

Contact

Michael Ehrmann

Chief

Bank of Canada
234 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Curriculum vitae

Latest

Exploring Differences in Household Debt Across Euro Area Countries and the United States

We use internationally comparable household-level data for ten euro area economies and the United States to investigate cross-country differences in debt holdings and the potential of debt overhang.

Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Staff Working Paper 2015-13 Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (i.e., an intensification in the transmission of shocks across countries), fragmentation (a reduction in spillovers) and flight-to-quality patterns, exploiting the heteroskedasticity of intraday changes in bond yields for identification.

Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?

Staff Working Paper 2014-52 Michael Ehrmann
Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

Staff Working Paper 2014-28 Michael Ehrmann, Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro
This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households

Staff Working Paper 2014-10 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann
This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, D1, D14, D8, D83, G, G1, G11

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Referreed Journals

  • "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion"
    (with G. Bekaert, M. Fratzscher and A. Mehl), Journal of Finance 69, 2014, 2597-2649.
  • "The Pricing of G7 Sovereign Bond Spreads - The Times, They are A-Changin"
    (with A. D’Agostino), Journal of Banking and Finance 14, 2014, 155-176.
  • "The Euro Exchange Rate During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Dancing to its Own Tune?"
    (with C. Osbat, L. Uusküla and J. Strasky), Journal of International Money and Finance 49, 2014, 319-339.
  • "Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability"
    (with B. Born and M. Fratzscher), Economic Journal 124, 2014, 701-734.
  • "Dispersed Communication by Central Bank Committees and the Predictability of Monetary Policy Decisions"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Public Choice 157(1), 2013, 223-244.
  • "Explaining EU Citizens’ Trust in the ECB in Normal and Crisis Times"
    (with M. Soudan and L. Stracca), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 115, 2013, 781-807.
  • "The News Content of Macroeconomic Announcements - What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale?"
    (with D. Sondermann), International Journal of Central Banking 8, 2012, 1-53.
  • "Communicating About Macroprudential Supervision – a New Challenge for Central Banks"
    (with B. Born and M. Fratzscher), International Finance 15, 2012, 179-203.
  • "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts"
    (with S. Eijffinger and M. Fratzscher), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 114, 2012, 1018-1052.
  • "Memories of High Inflation"
    (with T. Tzamourani), European Journal of Political Economy 28, 2012, 174-191.
  • "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission"
    (with M. Fratzscher and R. Rigobon), Journal of Applied Econometrics 26, 2011, 948-974.
  • "Politics and Monetary Policy"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Review of Economics and Statistics 93, 2011, 941-960.
  • "Monetary Policy in the Media"
    (with H. Berger and M. Fratzscher, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 43, 2011, 689-709.
  • "Geography, Skills or Both: What Explains Fed Watchers’ Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?"
    (with H. Berger and M. Fratzscher), Journal of Macroeconomics 33, 2011, 420-437.
  • "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area"
    (with M. Fratzscher, R. Gürkaynak and E. Swanson), Review of Economics and Statistics 93, 2011, 350-364.
  • "Inflation Developments and Perceptions After the Euro Cash Changeover"
    German Economic Review 12, 2011, 33-58.
  • "Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is a Matter of Geography"
    (with H. Berger and M. Fratzscher, European Economic Review 53, 2009, 1028-1041.
  • "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 71, 2009, 739-759.
  • "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences"
    (with M. Fratzscher), International Journal of Central Banking 5, 2009, pp. 41-84.
  • "Purdah – On the Rationale for Central Bank Silence Around Policy Meetings"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41, 2009, pp. 517-528.
  • "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence"
    (with A. Blinder, M. Fratzscher, J. De Haan and D.J. Jansen), Journal of Economic Literature 46, 2008, 910-945.
  • "Communication and Decision-Making by Central Bank Committees: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39, 2007, 509-541.
  • "Transparency, Disclosure and the Federal Reserve"
    (with M. Fratzscher), International Journal of Central Banking 3(1), 2007, 179-225.
  • "The Timing of Central Bank Communication"
    (with M. Fratzscher), European Journal of Political Economy 23, 2007, 124-145.
  • "Euro Area Inflation Differentials"
    (with I. Angeloni), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 7(1; Topics), 2007, Article 24.
  • "The Exchange Rate - A Shock Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of 4 Open Economies"
    (with M. Artis), Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 2006, 874-893.
  • "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modelling"
    (with I. Angeloni, L. Aucremanne, J. Galí, A. Levin and F. Smets), Journal of the European Economic Association 4, 2006, 562-574.
  • "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the US"
    (with M. Fratzscher), The Economic Journal 115, 2005, pp. 928-948.
  • "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: New Evidence from Real-Time Data"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Journal of International Money and Finance 24, 2005, 317-341.
  • "Bank Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission"
    (with A. Worms), Journal of the European Economic Association 2(6), 2004, 1148-1171.
  • "Taking Stock: Monetary Policy Transmission to Equity Markets"
    (with M. Fratzscher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36(4), 2004, 719-737.
  • "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Early Evidence"
    (with I. Angeloni), Economic Policy, 37, 2003, 470-492.
  • "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area – Evidence from Micro Data on Banks and Firms"
    (with J.-B. Chatelain, A. Generale, J. Martinez-Pages, P. Vermeulen and A. Worms), Journal of the European Economic Association, 1 2003, pp. 731-742.
  • "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective"
    (with M. Fratzscher), International Finance 6, 2003, pp. 309-328.
  • "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area"
    (with L. Gambacorta, J. Martinez-Pages, P. Sevestre and A. Worms), Oxford Review of Economic Policy 19, 2003, pp. 58-72.
  • "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy"
    (with F. Smets), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27, 2003, pp. 1611-1638.
  • "Regime-Dependent Impulse Response Functions in a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression Model"
    (with M. Ellison and N. Valla), Economics Letters 78, 2003, pp. 295-299.
  • "Comparing Monetary Policy Transmission Across European Countries"
    Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 136(1), 2000, pp. 58-83.

Education

  • Ph.D., European University Institute (2000)

Research Interests

  • International finance
  • International economics
  • Central bank communication
  • Monetary policy transmission

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