The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I
In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks. In the simplest case—the capital asset pricing model—the amount of systematic variations is given by the covariance of this stock with the equity market index. In the context of currencies, exchange rate variations that are systematic originate from common international economic or financial conditions affecting all exchange rates. These systematic variations contrast with domestic changes in economic or financial conditions specific to one country and affecting only that country’s exchange rate. Separating systematic variations is useful and essential to identify the effect of domestic economic news or policy decisions on the exchange rate.