June 17, 2007 Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Russell Barnett While demographic change has been an ongoing process in Canada, labour market implications of an aging population will become more acute in coming years. This article discusses the anticipated slowing in the growth of trend labour input over the coming decades with the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and the stabilization of the labour force attachment of women. As the pool of labour shrinks, employers and governments will be looking for ways to address barriers to continued labour force participation and firms will have a greater incentive to find ways of improving labour productivity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Potential output
Schooling, Inequality and Government Policy Staff Working Paper 2007-12 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper asks: What is the effect of government policy on output and inequality in an environment with education and labor-supply decisions? The answer is given in a general equilibrium model, consistent with the post 1960s facts on male wage inequality and labor supply in the U.S. In the model, education and labor-supply decisions depend on progressive income taxation, the education system, the social security system, and technology-driven wage differentials. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): H, H5, H52, J, J3, J31, J38
December 8, 2006 Perspectives on Productivity and Potential Output Growth: A Summary of the Joint Banque de France/Bank of Canada Workshop, 24–25 April 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Gilbert Cette, Donald Coletti A nation's productivity is the prime determinant of its real incomes and standard of living, as well as being a major determinant of its potential output. In the short run, deviations of actual output from potential output are a useful indicator of inflationary pressures. This article is a short summary of the proceedings of the workshop, which focus on productivity and potential output growth among industrialized countries. The research is organized under three main themes: estimating potential growth; productivity and growth; and institutions, policies, and growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity
Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni Staff Working Paper 2004-46 Charles St-Arnaud The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32
Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach Staff Working Paper 2003-8 Andrew Rennison The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, E, E3, E32
An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP Staff Working Paper 2002-36 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32
Filtering for Current Analysis Staff Working Paper 2002-28 Simon van Norden This paper shows how existing band-pass filtering techniques and their extension can be applied to the common current-analysis problem of estimating current trends or cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1
La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework Staff Working Paper 1999-9 Maral Kichian In this paper we measure potential output (and consequently the output gap) using state-space models. Given that the estimated output gap is used as an indicator to measure the extent of inflationary pressures in the economy, we evaluate the use of such models for the implementation of monetary policy. Our starting point is the Gerlach […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24