Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51, R, R2, R21
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51
The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings Staff Working Paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51