Sluggish Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
May 18, 2005 Bank of Canada Issues Upgraded $10 Bank Note Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today put into circulation an upgraded $10 bank note with enhanced security features. The design, colour, and theme (Remembrance and Peacekeeping) of the upgraded $10 note are the same as those of the previously issued $10 note from the Canadian Journey series. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
November 7, 2013 Bank of Canada Issues $5 and $10 Polymer Bank Notes Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada has announced the entry into circulation of the new $5 and $10 polymer bank notes. Starting today, these final two notes in the new polymer Frontiers series will be available at financial institutions across Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
July 15, 2020 Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues program of quantitative easing Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process Staff discussion paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
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January 24, 2024 Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
February 16, 2023 Our commitment to 2% inflation Speech summary Paul Beaudry Alberta School of Business Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains why the 2% target remains the centrepiece of the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Value of Mortgage Choice: Payment Structure and Contract Length Staff working paper 2026-2 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Katya Kartashova We study household mortgage choice in a model with three mortgage contracts that differ in their payment structures: fixed-rate fixed-payment, variable-rate variable-payment, and a hybrid variable-rate fixed-payment mortgage where interest rate changes affect principal repayment rather than payment size. We calibrate the model to match mortgage choice patterns in Canada, where all these options are offered with short terms. We demonstrate that restricting contract choice or mandating long terms, as in the U.S. system, can lead to substantial welfare losses by limiting risk management strategies and increasing mortgage pricing ex-ante. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit
March 1, 2018 Central Bank of the Year Award Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Central Banking Awards 2018 London, United Kingdom Governor Stephen S. Poloz accepts the Central Bank of the Year award from Central Banking. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks