Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock Staff working paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning
Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process Staff discussion paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 24, 2024 Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
June 4, 2009 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
February 16, 2023 Our commitment to 2% inflation Speech summary Paul Beaudry Alberta School of Business Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains why the 2% target remains the centrepiece of the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
April 29, 2026 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II Staff analytical note 2017-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies
A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices Staff working paper 2020-15 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
November 23, 2006 Joint Statement of the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada on the Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The primary objective of Canada's monetary policy is to enhance the well-being of Canadians by contributing to sustained economic growth, rising levels of employment and improved living standards. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
February 28, 2021 Research Update - February 2021 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters