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This issue includes analysis of the unconventional monetary policies recently implemented by central banks, and also presents Bank research in two areas - the migration of labour between economic regions in Canada, and the asset-allocation and funding decisions for Canada’s foreign exchange reserves.

Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

This Bank of Canada conference examined macroeconomic and monetary policy challenges around climate change, including firm and bank exposures to physical and transition risks. Participants also discussed medium- and long-run implications for productivity growth and trade.

When the Bank of Canada changes its policy interest rate, it affects every part of the economy – but that does not happen all at once. Learn more about how raising and lowering interest rates takes effect through the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has authored a discussion paper entitled “Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective.” The paper explains how central bankers are supplementing economic models and adopting a risk-management approach to integrate uncertainty in their policy decisions.

The Report provides our latest assessment of the outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada. Before I give you a flavour of that assessment, I would like to say a word about the objective of Canadian monetary policy and how we go about achieving it.

When it launched a new system for regularly announcing its decisions regarding the overnight rate of interest in December 2000, the Bank of Canada had a number of key objectives in mind. These included reduced uncertainty in financial markets, greater focus on the Canadian rather than the U.S. economic environment, more emphasis on the medium-term perspective of monetary policy, and increased transparency regarding the Bank's interest rate decisions. Evidence to date suggests that all four objectives have been met to a substantial degree. Fixed announcement dates have provided regular opportunities for the Bank to communicate its views on the state of the Canadian economy to the public. This has helped to improve understanding of the broad direction of monetary policy and of the rationale behind the Bank's policy decisions although the decisions themselves are not always fully anticipated.

In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks.

This article presents the key results from the spring 2022 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 22 and March 18. The survey included a special section on the potential risks associated with the global normalization of monetary policy.