Search

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an assessment of risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system, including risks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada.

Examining the incentives for banks to hold various assets on their balance sheets for use as collateral when the opportunity cost of doing so can be high; an outline of the complexity inherent in any modern risk-management system and review of possible strategies to improve the performance of risk management; causes and consequences of the changing pace of labour reallocation in Canada; description of the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM— an adaptation of the Global Economy Model— with examples of its recent application.

Proceedings of a conference held by the Bank of Canada, November 2008 (proceedings volume, available in electronic and print formats)

In order to achieve a full recovery, the global financial system must have continuously open markets at its core, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney argued today in a speech to the Canada – United Kingdom Chamber of Commerce.

A number of central banks publish their own business conditions surveys based on complex non random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. This paper describes a methodology for modeling complex non-random sampling behaviour, and computing relevant measures of statistical confidence, based on a given survey’s historical selection practice. We apply this framework to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey by describing the sampling method in terms of rules-based criteria, historical practices, and Bayesian probabilities. This allows us to replicate the firm selection process using Monte Carlo simulations on a comprehensive micro-dataset of Canadian firms. We find, under certain assumptions, no evidence that the Bank’s firm selection process results in biased estimates and/or wider confidence intervals.

Month-end statement of assets and liabilities as required by the Bank of Canada Act. The figures for the last two reference periods are preliminary and are subject to revision.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.