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Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise.

How do central bank crisis interventions calm market fears? Using options data, we measure the perceived risk of large asset price drops across horizons from two weeks to ten years. Studying the Fed's response to the 2020 turmoil, we find asset purchases reduce short-term fears while interest rate actions shape long-term expectations.

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of Toni Gravelle as Deputy Governor, effective October 1, 2019. The Bank also today announced that Mark Hardisty will join the Bank as Special Advisor to the Governor for a two-year term beginning November 6, 2019.

Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks.

Change is the central theme of my remarks today. First, I will talk about some of the changes that have taken place at the Bank of Canada over its 70-year history. Then, I'll talk about some of the changes that are currently taking place in the global economy, as well as how we see our economy - across Canada and right here in Manitoba - adjusting to these changes.

The Canadian economy continues to adjust to developments in the global economy such as stronger world demand, higher commodity prices, and the realignment of world currencies, including the Canadian dollar. Emerging-market economies, especially China and India, are contributing to intensified competition but are also creating new trading opportunities for Canada.

The Canadian economy continued to expand robustly in 2000 while inflation remained low.

Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.

The Bank's mandate is to promote Canada's economic and financial well-being. Clearly, this is an important mandate, and we are determined to demonstrate excellence as we work to fulfill it.

Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses flexible inflation targeting and “good” and “bad” disinflation.