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Brass Cash Register, 1910

The register is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?

Change is the central theme of my remarks today. First, I will talk about some of the changes that have taken place at the Bank of Canada over its 70-year history. Then, I'll talk about some of the changes that are currently taking place in the global economy, as well as how we see our economy - across Canada and right here in Manitoba - adjusting to these changes.

The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013.

The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The December 2015 issue features two reports on significant developments in the financial system related to household finances: the importance of residential mortgage securitization for Canadian housing finance and the changing patterns of indebtedness of Canadian households.

The Bank of Canada has played an integral role in Canadian society for 70 years. When the Bank opened its doors in the spring of 1935, this country was struggling to define itself and to survive the economic and social turmoil of the Great Depression. Like Canada’s economy, its central bank has evolved and grown over the years. It has faced critical challenges and embraced change. But the Bank’s mandate has not changed. It is now, as it was then, to provide an effective, national monetary authority for Canada.

We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.

The year 2007 was marked by sharply increased volatility in financial and foreign exchange markets, and a widening of credit spreads. Despite financial market turbulence, the Canadian economy continued to expand, and inflation remained close to our target of 2 per cent. In this, my final Annual Report message, I begin by reviewing the economic and financial developments and challenges of the past year. I then highlight seven important ongoing challenges faced by Canada and the Bank during my seven years as Governor.

In the interest of better understanding the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy actions on bond and bill yields, Andreou assesses the impact of policy-rate announcements on short and long bonds over the period 1996 to 2004. To aid the analysis, policy actions are decomposed into expected and surprise components. He also examines whether the introduction of fixed announcement dates (FADs) has affected these results, including markets' perceptions. The main finding is that unexpected policy actions by the Bank have a significant effect on market rates at the shorter end of the yield curve, with the effect dissipating as the maturity increases. A second finding, that the impact on longer-term interest rates of a surprise action by the Bank has diminished since the introduction of the FADs, suggests that the Bank's long-term policy goals are well understood and credible.