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Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.

How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections

Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.
November 16, 2017

Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline

Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
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