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Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

Measures of productivity tell us how much output we produce from the use of tangible inputs - such as skilled workers and capital equipment - and intangible inputs - such as technological advances and managerial and entrepreneurial know-how. Productivity rises over time as we boost output by finding new and more efficient ways to use these inputs.

Canadian businesses remain in good financial shape overall, but risks are building. Trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could create new stress for some firms.

This Report presents the Bank of Canada’s assessment of the trend of inflation in Canada and explains the monetary policy actions deemed necessary to keep inflation within the Bank’s inflation-control target range.

The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2025 edition highlights a decline in the US-dollar value of sovereign debt in default and provides more data about defaults on China’s official loans.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report, there have been a number of unanticipated developments that have changed the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Canada.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range.

In the November Monetary Policy Report, the timing and extent of the recovery in economic activity in Canada this year was seen as depending crucially on geopolitical developments and on how quickly consumer and business confidence would return to normal.

The Canadian economy ended 2024 strong. However, the escalating trade conflict is diminishing growth prospects. While tariffs are expected to increase price pressures, removing the consumer carbon tax has lowered energy prices. The unpredictability of US trade policy, and the speed and magnitude of the shifts, are making the economic outlook very uncertain.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse indicate that firms’ sentiment has deteriorated. Domestic sales outlooks have weakened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated costs related to fuel, while export outlooks have improved because of stronger demand for commodities. Investment intentions remain solid, but fewer firms plan to add staff. More firms now expect their input and selling prices to rise, reflecting higher global oil prices. Firms’ inflation expectations are also higher than in recent quarters. Oil producers have revised their capital spending and production plans upward, citing expectations of sustained elevated oil prices.