Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions Staff working paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C72, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns Staff working paper 2017-58 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xi We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions Staff analytical note 2016-5 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt, Robin Scott This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers Staff working paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 20, 1999 The euro: Its economic implications and its lessons for Canada Remarks Gordon Thiessen Canadian Club of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario We have just witnessed the dawn of a new era in Europe. Beginning this month, 11 of the 15 member countries of the European Union have joined in a currency union. And they are using the euro as their common currency. The currency union is yet another step on the road to greater economic, social, and political integration in Europe - a vision some 50 years in the making. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
July 23, 2009 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Mark Carney Ottawa, Ontario Global economic activity appears to be nearing its trough, and there are increasing signs that activity has begun to expand in many countries in response to monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and measures to stabilize the global financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025 Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 21, 2003 Real Return Bond Funding Review The Real Return Bond (RRB) program was created in line with the Government's fundamental objective of raising stable, low-cost funding.
April 19, 2016 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Good morning, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are happy to be back to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. I extend particular greetings to the new members of this committee, and look forward to being with you twice a year to talk about […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
February 28, 2013 Research Update - February 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters