Financial markets

Financial markets are where savers and borrowers exchange funds. Their well-functioning is critical. This is why we study their structure, participants, regulations and how they are affected by key external changes.

Financial markets consist of markets for money, bonds, equities, derivatives and foreign currencies. It is mainly through these markets that the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate influences interest rates and exchange rates for the Canadian dollar. This, in turn, helps us achieve our monetary policy objectives. As the fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, we are also involved in financial markets through auctions of government securities.

Our research increases our understanding of the structure and functioning of Canadian financial markets and helps us identify ways to support their development and stability.

Examples of areas we are exploring:

  • the ability of and risks to markets absorbing higher levels of government debt
  • what motivates international investors, such as US hedge funds, to participate in the Government of Canada bond market
  • the risks to financial stability from new non-bank players entering the business of intermediating markets
  • important things to consider when designing central bank programs that supply liquidity to market participants
  • the impacts on market structure from things like artificial intelligence and tokenized assets

Government debt market

In recent years, governments around the world, including in Canada and the United States, have issued more debt to support their economies. This large supply of government securities may lead to funding challenges and could distort asset markets. Our research aims to understand the capacity of markets to absorb this debt and its effect on market functioning, financial stability and the transmission of monetary policy.

Market structure and regulation

Another key part of our research is understanding how financial markets adapt to the evolving financial environment and how regulation safeguards stability and market functioning. In many countries, including Canada, fixed-income markets are still primarily over the counter and rely heavily on bank-owned dealers. This reliance can create challenges for dealers managing their balance sheets and, in times of stress, may limit funding to the broader economy. At the same time hedge funds and high-frequency, or principal, trading firms are among the new players acting as intermediaries as these markets digitalize. This change brings both benefits and new risks, which we strive to better understand.

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The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility

We identify a few Bank of Canada press releases that had the largest immediate impact on the exchange rate market. We find that volatility increases after these releases, but the effect is short-lived and mostly dissipates after the first hour, on average. Beyond the first hour, the size of the effect is similar to what we observe for other economic releases, such as those for inflation or economic growth data.

Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?

Staff analytical note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack
We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

Markets Look Beyond the Headline

Staff analytical note 2018-37 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman
Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data.

Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?

Can macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations on banks reduce the financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities created by borrowing in foreign currency? To evaluate the effectiveness and unintended consequences of macroprudential FX regulations, we develop a parsimonious model of bank and market lending in domestic and foreign currency and derive four predictions.

The Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market

Staff analytical note 2018-35 Olga Bilyk, Maria teNyenhuis
Recent policy changes are having a clear impact on the mortgage market. The number of new, highly indebted borrowers has fallen, and overall mortgage activity has slowed significantly.
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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. The research is non-partisan and evidence based. All research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each paper or article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.

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