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66
result(s)
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11
Stephen S. Poloz
This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E3,
O,
O1,
O11,
O3,
O33
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
Staff Working Paper 2018-50
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
C3,
C32,
E,
E0,
E02,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities
Staff Analytical Note 2018-6
Thibaut Duprey
When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Monetary and financial indicators,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C01,
C1,
C11,
C15,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E32,
E37,
E4,
E44,
E47,
E5,
E58,
E6,
E66,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G18
Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14
Sharon Kozicki,
Jill Vardy
While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E65
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-13
Rhys R. Mendes,
Stephen Murchison,
Carolyn A. Wilkins
For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E65
May 11, 2017
Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Domestic demand and components,
Economic models,
International topics,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
D,
D2,
D24,
D8,
D80,
E,
E2,
E22,
F,
F0,
F01,
G,
G3,
G31
The Case of Serial Disappointment
Staff Analytical Note 2016-10
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Nicholas Labelle,
Martin Leduc,
Lori Rennison
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Domestic demand and components,
Economic models,
International topics,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E27,
E6,
E66,
F,
F0,
F01
The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes
Staff Working Paper 2016-9
Christian Friedrich,
Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International financial markets,
International topics,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F21,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G11
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?
Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5
Maxime Leboeuf,
Robert Fay
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Domestic demand and components,
Economic models,
International topics,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C23,
C3,
C33,
D,
D2,
D24,
D8,
D80,
D84,
E,
E2,
E22,
F,
F0,
F01,
G,
G3,
G31