Posts

• July 24, 2024

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—In focus: Drivers of inflation in core goods and services

  Inflation in the prices of goods excluding energy has fallen sharply across many economies, while inflation in services excluding shelter remains elevated. Examining the factors behind recent shifts can provide insights into where inflation may be headed, at least over the near term.
• July 24, 2024

  Monetary Policy Report – July 2024 – Risks

  The Bank sees two broad types of upside risks to the inflation outlook and two main downside risks, though the base-case scenario is considered the mostly likely outcome.
• July 24, 2024

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Projections

  Economic growth in Canada is forecast to improve in the second half of 2024 and strengthen further in 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy.
• July 24, 2024

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Global economy

  The global economy is forecast to grow at around 3% over the projection horizon, in line with its current pace. Inflation remains above central bank targets.
• July 24, 2024

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Canadian economy—Outlook

  Canada’s economic growth is forecast to increase as interest rates gradually ease and both household and business confidence rise. Inflation is projected to return to the 2% target in 2025, though the trajectory may be bumpy.
• July 24, 2024

  Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report

  On Wednesday, July 24, 2024, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 22, 2024

  CFEC Releases Results of April 2024 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey

  The Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee (CFEC) released today the results of its April 2024 semi-annual survey of foreign exchange volumes in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee

• Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions

  Staff working paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney

  We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D18, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G28, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit

• The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress

  Staff analytical note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao

  I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit

• Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

  Staff analytical note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala

  We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G13, G14, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk