F3 - International Finance

• Can the Canadian International Investment Position Stabilize a Slowing Economy?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-14 Maxime Leboeuf, Chen Fan

  In this note, we find that valuation effects can act as an important stabilizer, strengthening Canada’s net external wealth when its economic outlook worsens relative to that of other countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32

• Policy Rules for Capital Controls

  Staff Working Paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha

  This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1

• Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

  Staff Working Paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress

  This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41

• Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy: Implications for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2017-34 Ricardo Correa, Teodora Paligorova, Horacio Sapriza, Andrei Zlate

  Using the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics data on bilateral bank claims from 1995 to 2014, we analyze the impact of monetary policy on cross-border bank flows. We find that monetary policy in a source country is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F36, G, G0, G01

• Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions

  Staff Working Paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals

  Staff Working Paper 2017-22 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba

  This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-9 Christopher S. Sutherland

  The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F36, G, G1, G14, G15, G2, G21
• June 8, 2017

  Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities

  Financial System Review - June 2017 Gabriel Bruneau, Maxime Leboeuf, Guillaume Nolin

  While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6

• Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba

  Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, F, F3, F31

• Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-7 Philippe Muller, Jérôme Bourque

  The investment of foreign exchange reserves or other asset portfolios requires an assessment of the credit quality of investment counterparties. Traditionally, foreign exchange reserve and asset managers have relied on credit rating agencies (CRAs) as the main source for credit assessments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32