Econometric and statistical methods
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On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output
This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output. -
A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data
This paper describes a new test for evaluating conditional density functions that remains valid when the data are time-dependent and that is therefore applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed standard normal under the null hypothesis, and diverges to infinity when the null hypothesis is false. -
Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation. -
Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation
Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics. -
Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods
This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters. -
Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada
This study tests for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada following the methodology of McConnell and Quiros (1998). A break is found in the first quarter of 1991. -
On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor. -
Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity
This paper proposes a class of linear signed rank statistics to test for a random walk with unknown drift in the presence of arbitrary forms of conditional heteroscedasticity.