Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine

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In this study, the author presents a new forecast and analysis model for the U.S. economy (i.e., the USM model) constructed at the Bank of Canada. The USM has a number of advantages over its predecessor, the VSM model. First, it utilizes new methods of identifying potential GDP based on structural VARs. Second, it makes it possible to take better account of the current characteristics of the U.S. economy (notably the productivity boom) and to endogenize interest rates. Third, it tries to correct the VSM's shortcomings with respect to treatment of fiscal policy. Finally, it attempts to incorporate the notion of credibility of monetary policy through expectations of inflation. The USM features a Phillips curve, an IS curve, and a function representing the reaction of monetary authorities. Expectations of inflation are centred on the inflation target. The Phillips curve is specified in terms of the output gap and takes the effects of productivity on inflation into account. The reaction function is similar to Taylor's rule. The dynamic behaviour of the model and the interaction among the different variables seem to be consistent with economic theory and empirical literature. The next step in expanding the USM will be to develop the exchange rate and integrate the foreign sector.