On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access Staff working paper 2025-19 Fabienne Schneider The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G19, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks Staff working paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, D, D1, L, L0, L00 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Non-Bank Dealing and Liquidity Bifurcation in Fixed-Income Markets Staff working paper 2025-2 Michael Brolley, David Cimon We model non-bank entry into fixed-income markets and state-dependent liquidity. Non-bank financial institutions improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress. Banks may become less reliable to marginal clients, exacerbating the difference in liquidity between normal and stressed times. Central bank lending during stress may limit this harmful division. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, G21, G23, L, L1, L10, L13, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech Staff working paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D6, D63, G, G4, G41, L, L1, L11, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions Staff working paper 2024-29 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Eric Richert, Milena Wittwer This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G1, G12, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market structure
Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market? Staff analytical note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G13, G14, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
How big is cash-futures basis trading in Canada’s government bond market? Staff analytical note 2024-16 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala Cash-futures basis trading has grown alongside the Government of Canada bond futures market. We examine this growth over time in relation to Government of Canada bond and repurchase agreement markets and provide details on the type of market participants that engage in this type of trading activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Market structure of cryptoasset exchanges: Introduction, challenges and emerging trends Staff analytical note 2024-2 Vladimir Skavysh, Jacob Sharples, Sofia Priazhkina, Salman H. Hasham This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges. We contrast their design with exchanges in traditional financial markets and discuss emerging regulatory trends and innovations aimed at solving the problems cryptoasset exchanges face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games Staff working paper 2023-58 Erhao Xie This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods