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Global growth has been resilient. But the historic rise in US tariffs is reshaping global trade, weighing on prospects for global growth and pushing up inflation in the United States.

The ongoing trade conflict is fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy and will have a lasting negative impact on economic activity. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is putting upward pressure on costs. Reflecting these two competing forces, inflation remains near the 2% target over the projection horizon.

Economic growth in Canada is projected to strengthen from around 0.75% in the second half of 2025, with annual growth averaging 1.4% over 2026 and 2027. Inflation is expected to remain around 2% over the projection horizon.

Many countries have signed new trade agreements with the United States. US tariffs continue to be in flux, and the future of trade in North America remains uncertain.

On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the interest rate decision.

Canadian economic growth has slowed, reflecting the disruptive effects of US tariffs and a decline in population growth. Exports and business investment have slumped. After being close to 2% for several months, CPI inflation was 2.4% in September.

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On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Four times a year, Governing Council presents the Monetary Policy Report: the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, and its assessment of risks.

This November, the Bank of Canada Museum invites visitors to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Financial Literacy Month (FLM) with a full lineup of free, hands-on activities that make money management approachable, practical, and fun for all ages.

Find answers to common questions about retail payments supervision.