Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse Staff Discussion Paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22
AI Agents for Cash Management in Payment Systems Staff Working Paper 2025-35 Iñaki Aldasoro, Ajit Desai Can artificial intelligence (AI) think and act like a cash manager? In this paper we explore how generative AI agents can help manage liquidity, prioritize payments and optimize efficiency in real-time gross settlement systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58
Transaction Costs, the Value of Convenience, and the Cross-Section of Safe Asset Returns Staff Working Paper 2025-34 Ragnar Juelsrud, Plamen Nenov, Fabienne Schneider, Olav Syrstad We study the cross-section of equilibrium returns on safe assets using a tractable asset pricing model with a micro-founded demand for liquidity and multiple safe assets with heterogeneous transaction costs. We test the main predictions of our theory using a novel measure of relative (in)convenience yields in the US Treasury market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12
The Dealer-to-Client Repo Market: A Buoy on a Swaying Sea Staff Discussion Paper 2025-14 Greg Adams, Evan Dudley, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Sofia Tchamova, Andreas Uthemann In 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) rose 7 basis points above the Bank of Canada’s target overnight rate as settlement balances declined and hedge fund borrowing increased by $30 billion, straining dealers’ balance sheets. Exercising market power, dealers raised rates, and as client activity grew, these higher rates increasingly influenced CORRAs deviation from target. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D4, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G12
November 20, 2025 Bank of Canada updates Terms and Conditions for the Receiver General morning auctions The Bank of Canada, in its role as fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, is announcing updates to the governing the morning auction of Receiver General (RG) cash balances. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
November 19, 2025 FM93 in Quebec City Nicolas Vincent, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. Interview with Trudeau-Landry on FM93 Radio. Content Type(s): Press, Media activities