April 13, 2016 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity
March 30, 2016 Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time Remarks Lynn Patterson Edmonton Chamber of Commerce Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses how the Canadian economy is adjusting to the fall in commodity prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments
Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23
Capital Structure, Pay Structure and Job Termination Staff Working Paper 2016-12 Jason Allen, James R. Thompson We develop a model to analyze the link between financial leverage, worker pay structure and the risk of job termination. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that even in the absence of any agency problem among workers, variable pay can be optimal despite workers being risk averse and firms risk neutral. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, J, J3, J33
Reconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series Staff Working Paper 2016-1 Julien Champagne, André Kurmann, Jay Stewart Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E2, E24, E3, E30, J, J3, J30
Extending the Labour Market Indicator to the Canadian Provinces Staff Discussion Paper 2016-2 Alexander Fritsche, Katherine Ragan Calculating the labour market indicator (LMI) at the provincial level provides useful insights into Canada’s regional economies and reveals differing trends in the state of underlying labour market conditions across provinces. Conclusions based on the Canadian LMI do not necessarily translate to the provinces. In most cases, the correlations between the provincial LMIs and the underlying labour market variables have the expected sign. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E27, J, J2, J21, J23
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23
November 19, 2015 A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J0