Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff working paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
May 13, 2024 CARR publishes illustrative examples on determining fallback rates on floating rate notes that reference CDOR CARR is publishing two presentations to clarify how CARR’s recommended fallback rate for floating rate notes that reference CDOR should be implemented for calculating the coupon and accrued interest post June 2024. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
May 10, 2024 Financial Post Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Interview with the Financial Post Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation Staff working paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
May 9, 2024 Framework for assessing financial stability Bank staff conduct analysis and research to identify and mitigate systemic risks that might impair the functioning of the financial system. The results are published once a year in the Financial Stability Report.
May 9, 2024 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
May 9, 2024 Financial System Survey highlights—2024 This article presents the key results from the 2024 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 20 and March 8. The survey included a special section on potential risks arising from different hypothetical interest-rate paths. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Survey
May 9, 2024 Financial Stability Report—2024 Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers, Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Rhys R. Mendes, Nicolas Vincent Canada’s financial system remains resilient. Over the past year, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial institutions have continued to proactively adjust to higher interest rates. But this adjustment is not yet over and continues to present risks to financial stability. Key risks include those related to debt serviceability and asset valuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
May 8, 2024 CORRA Advisory Group Meeting (May 8, 2024) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): CORRA Advisory Group