November 28, 2016 From Hewers of Wood to Hewers of Code: Canada’s Expanding Service Economy Remarks Stephen S. Poloz C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how growth in Canada’s service sector is leading to high-paying jobs and helping complete the economic recovery. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Firm dynamics, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
November 1, 2016 25 Years of Inflation Targets: Certainty for Uncertain Times Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the renewal of Canada’s inflation-targeting agreement and how it continues to help the economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy framework
September 26, 2016 Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Western Washington University Bellingham, Washington Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses global trade integration and the implications for the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
June 4, 2016 Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how the mix of monetary and fiscal policies in an economy has important implications for debt levels and financial stability over the medium term. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework
May 6, 2016 Stress Prevention: Central Banks and Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Joint Workshop: Bank of Canada, International Monetary Fund, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and Peterson Institute for International Economics Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses central banks and the maintenance of financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58