January 11, 2016 Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2015-16 Overall, responses to the winter Business Outlook Survey indicate that business sentiment has deteriorated as the negative effects of the commodity price shock continue to unfold and spread beyond the resource sector. However, exporters not directly affected by lower commodity prices continue to benefit from strong U.S. demand and the weak Canadian dollar. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2020-38 Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujič, Sofia Maier What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, I, I2, J, J2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Estimation and Inference for Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy-Tailed Distributions Staff working paper 2026-8 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour, Md. Nazmul Ahsan Statistical inference--both estimation and testing--for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to be challenging and computationally demanding. We propose simple and efficient estimators for SV models with conditionally heavy-tailed error distributions, particularly the Student’s t and Generalized Exponential Distributions (GED). The estimators rely on a small set of moment conditions derived from ARMA-type representations of SV models, with an option to apply “winsorization” to improve stability and finite-sample performance. Except for the degrees of-freedom parameter, closed-form expressions are available for all other parameters, extending Ahsan and Dufour (2019, 2021), thus eliminating the need for numerical optimization or initial values. We derive the estimators’ asymptotic distribution and show that, due to their analytical tractability, they support reliable, and even exact, simulation-based inference via Monte Carlo or bootstrap methods. We assess their performance through extensive simulations and demonstrate their practical relevance in financial return data, which strongly reject the normality assumption in favor of heavy-tailed models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C13, C15, C2, C22, C5, C51, C53, C58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
March 28, 2011 The “Great” Recession in Canada: Perception vs. Reality Remarks Jean Boivin Montréal CFA Society Montréal, Quebec Barely three years ago, the financial crisis was a source of major concern worldwide. This unprecedented event had serious and costly repercussions, which we continue to feel today. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
July 4, 2016 Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2016 The summer Business Outlook Survey indicates that overall business sentiment is subdued. The boost from foreign demand remains insufficient to outweigh the continued drag from commodity-related activity combined with modest domestic demand. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
November 7, 2001 Monetary Policy Report – November 2001 Two major issues dominate the analysis and policy discussion in this Monetary Policy Report: the nature and extent of the global economic slowdown that began late last year and the consequences of the terrorist attacks in the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
August 19, 2011 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Mark Carney House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Thank you for this opportunity to appear here today. Recent Economic and Financial Developments In recent weeks, several downside risks to the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection have been realised. The European sovereign crisis has intensified, the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded, and a broad range of data has signalled slower global […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
May 30, 2005 Governor Dodge Examines How Countries Can Help Resolve Global Imbalances Media Relations Montréal, Quebec Mr. Dodge cited the promotion of flexible markets, the creation and maintenance of a sound financial system, and the pursuit of sound fiscal and monetary policies as priorities for policy-makers worldwide. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
The Geography of Pandemic Containment Staff working paper 2021-26 Elisa Giannone, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang Interconnectedness between US states has affected the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the optimal containment policies regulating the movement of goods and people within and between states. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, H, H0, I, I1, R, R1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
December 1, 2016 Bank of Canada announces details of forthcoming changes to its published foreign exchange rate data Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced a final list of the 26 foreign currency exchange rates that it will continue to publish after 1 March 2017. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee