February 28, 2017 Research Update - February 2017 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
December 6, 2006 The Art and Design of Canadian Bank Notes This volume offers readers a behind-the-scenes look at the demanding world of bank note design, highlighting the beauty of Canada's bank notes and celebrating the engraver's art. Soft cover, 124 pages (2006). Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs, Souvenir books
November 19, 2002 Purchasing-Power Parity: Definition, Measurement, and Interpretation Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2002 Robert Lafrance, Lawrence L. Schembri This article examines the concept of purchasing-power parity (PPP) and its implications for the equilibrium value of the Canadian exchange rate. PPP has two main applications, as a theory of exchange rate determination and as a means to compare living standards across countries. Concerning exchange rate determination, PPP is mainly useful as a reminder that monetary policy has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate, since the exchange rate can deviate persistently from its PPP value in response to real shocks. To compare living standards across countries, PPP exchange rates constructed by comparing the prices of national consumption baskets are used to translate per capita national incomes into a common currency. These rates are useful because they offset differences in national price levels to obtain comparable measures of purchasing power, but they are not an accurate measure of the equilibrium value of the exchange rate. The authors conclude that the current deviation of the Canadian exchange rate from the PPP rate does not imply that the exchange rate is undervalued, but that this deviation reflects the impact of persistent real factors, in particular, lower commodity prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Blockchain-Based Settlement for Asset Trading Staff working paper 2018-45 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Can securities be settled on a blockchain and, if so, what are the gains relative to existing settlement systems? We consider a blockchain that ensures delivery versus payment by linking transfers of assets with payments and operates using a proof-of-work protocol. The main benefit of a blockchain is faster and more flexible settlement, whereas the challenge is to avoid settlement fails when participants fork the chain to get rid of trading losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff working paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
October 16, 2024 Reporting of retail payment activity metrics at registration This supervisory policy outlines the retail payment activity metrics that payment service providers must report at registration. Content Type(s): Retail payments supervision materials, Supervisory policies Subject(s): Retail payments supervision, Registration, Reporting
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty Staff working paper 2020-19 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xu We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
January 9, 2017 Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2016-17 The results of the winter Business Outlook Survey indicate that business prospects have improved following two years of overall modest activity. The responses reflect building domestic demand, a supportive export outlook and an expected recovery in energy-related activity. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
March 31, 2016 Research Update - March 2016 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
April 14, 2010 Our history Learn the history of the Bank, and read short biographies of past governors.