June 11, 2007 Topics in Exchange Rate Modelling Conference held on 11 and 12 June 2007 (papers in unedited, electronic format only) Content Type(s): Conferences and workshops
It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada Staff analytical note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
June 30, 2013 Research Update - June 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System? Staff discussion paper 2020-2 Hanna Armelius, Carl Andreas Claussen, Scott Hendry In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
May 27, 2022 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2022 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2022 - For the period ended March 31, 2022 Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report
The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates Staff analytical note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
January 4, 2008 Bank of Canada announces Deputy Governor appointment Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada today announced the appointment of John D. Murray as Deputy Governor of the Bank and a member of the Bank's Governing Council, effective 4 January 2008. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
August 15, 2013 CSI: A Model for Tracking Short-Term Growth in Canadian Real GDP Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 André Binette, Jae Chang Canada’s Short-Term Indicator (CSI) is a new model that exploits the information content of 32 indicators to produce daily updates to forecasts of quarterly real GDP growth. The model is a data-intensive, judgment-free approach to short-term forecasting. While CSI’s forecasts at the start of the quarter are not very accurate, the model’s accuracy increases appreciably as more information becomes available. CSI is the latest addition to a wide range of models and information sources that the Bank of Canada uses, combined with expert judgment, to produce its short-term forecasts. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
September 30, 2020 Research Update - September 2020 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
May 5, 2015 Liquid Markets for a Solid Economy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses funding and market liquidity, and announces consultations on the Bank’s market operations and emergency lending frameworks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks