Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices Staff analytical note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
March 30, 2016 Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time Remarks Lynn Patterson Edmonton Chamber of Commerce Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses how the Canadian economy is adjusting to the fall in commodity prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff working paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
November 15, 2017 Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
April 18, 2018 Monetary Policy Report – April 2018 The Bank’s new forecast calls for economic growth of 2.0 percent this year, 2.1 per cent in 2019 and 1.8 per cent in 2020. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
November 17, 2011 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2011 This issue features four articles that present research and analysis by Bank staff. The first focuses on reforming the international monetary system; the second on the role of collateral and haircut policy in central bank lending; and the third on the extraction of information from the Business Outlook Survey using principal-component analysis. The fourth reviews studies that model the counterfeiting of bank notes. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”? Staff working paper 2022-45 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E6, E62, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
April 10, 2024 Monetary Policy Report – April 2024 Monetary policy is working to reduce inflationary pressures and inflation is coming down, although it will take more time to see if this progress proves durable. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% into the second quarter of 2024, ease below 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to target in 2025. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
April 13, 2022 Monetary Policy Report – April 2022 Canadian economic activity remains strong, and employment is robust. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 4¼% in 2022, easing to 3¼% in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report