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09:45 (ET)
On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Four times a year, Governing Council presents the Monetary Policy Report: the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, and its assessment of risks.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada.

Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions.

Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle.

This article examines another strategy in the Bank's approach to dealing with an uncertain world: the use of carefully articulated models to produce economic forecasts and to examine the implications of the various risks to those forecasts. Economic models are deliberate simplifications of a complex world that allow economists to make predictions that are reasonably accurate and that can be easily understood and communicated. By using several models, based on competing paradigms, the Bank minimizes policy errors that could result from relying on one view of the world and one philosophy of model design. The authors review some of the models currently used at the Bank, as well as the role of judgment in the projection process.

To better understand price-setting behaviour in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada's regional offices surveyed a representative sample of 170 firms between July 2002 and March 2003. The authors discuss the reasons behind the survey, the methodology used to develop the questionnaire and conduct the interviews, and summarize the results. The study also assessed several explanations for holding prices steady despite market pressures for a change. The survey findings indicate that prices in Canada are relatively flexible and have become more flexible over the past decade. Price stickiness was generally found to originate in firms' fears of antagonizing customers or disturbing the goodwill or reputation developed with them. A detailed discussion of the results includes a consideration of their implications for monetary policy.

Growth in the Canadian economy is projected to reach 2.8 per cent this year before slowing to 2.0 per cent next year and 1.6 per cent in 2019.

Overall, the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation in Canada is largely unchanged from that in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Growth in the first half of 2006 appears to have been a little stronger than projected, and the Canadian dollar has traded in a higher range than was envisaged in the April MPR.

The Bank projects that Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.7 per cent this year before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

Why do I think that such an order is so important? Well, in part it's because history has helped to demonstrate its virtues. But it's also extremely important to bear in mind the context, that is, the world in which we live today. This is a world in which adjustment is perpetual, where change is driven by the development of new technologies, where sectors and nations continually attempt to secure some new advantage. And in this world, price signals from markets help us to understand what adjustments are needed.