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How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

Staff working paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025

Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala
Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions.
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