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Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

We are experiencing a commodity super cycle. Throughout the current boom, the scale of price increases has been higher, and the range of affected commodities broader, than in previous upturns. Since 2002, grain and oilseed prices have more than doubled, base metals prices have tripled, and oil prices have quadrupled.

In these excerpts from a presentation to a conference in Toronto, Deputy Governor Charles Freedman analyses the way in which the monetary conditions index (MCI) enters into the Bank's thinking and actions. He describes how the Bank works in the context of a forward-looking assessment of economic developments and inflationary pressures to decide upon a desired path for the MCI that will result in a rate of inflation, six to eight quarters ahead, that is within the Bank's target band. Mr. Freedman also uses specific examples to explain how various shocks to the economy can change the Bank's desired path for monetary conditions. He describes the role that tactical considerations relating to market circumstances play regarding the timing of Bank actions to bring monetary conditions onto the desired path and emphasizes the need to give precedence to steadying nervous markets.

This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, which took place in November 2011 and dealt with payments systems, and two articles that present research by Bank staff on global current account imbalances and macrofinancial risk assessment. The fourth article in this issue reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting.

Inflation was near the 2% target in the fourth quarter of 2024, and interest rate cuts had bolstered economic growth. But since then, the trade conflict has intensified. Trade uncertainty and tariffs are expected to slow growth and add to price pressures.

The war in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, putting pressure on inflation. In a situation where geopolitical tensions trigger a severe tightening in financial conditions, the resilience of the financial system could be tested.

The Canadian and world economies are evolving essentially in line with the Bank's expectations, and the outlook for growth and inflation in Canada is similar to that in the October MPR. Canada's economy continues to adjust to global developments and to the associated changes in relative prices.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explains how higher productivity can protect the economy from future bouts of inflation and why fixing Canada's productivity problem should be a priority for all Canadians.

Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how Canada’s monetary policy framework—inflation targeting underpinned by a flexible exchange rate—has proved to be the most durable in the post-war period.