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A nation's productivity is the prime determinant of its real incomes and standard of living, as well as being a major determinant of its potential output. In the short run, deviations of actual output from potential output are a useful indicator of inflationary pressures. This article is a short summary of the proceedings of the workshop, which focus on productivity and potential output growth among industrialized countries. The research is organized under three main themes: estimating potential growth; productivity and growth; and institutions, policies, and growth.

Ever wonder how your wages are determined? You’re not the only one who cares about your wages. At the Bank of Canada, we care about them a lot too.

This article presents the key results from the 2023 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 21 and March 10. The survey included a special section on margining practices for non-centrally cleared derivatives.

Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period.

Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%.

The last time that I appeared before this committee was after the release of our April Report. Since then, our economy has been hit by a number of unusual shocks. Because of these shocks and other factors, growth has been weaker than expected. We now estimate that there is more slack in the economy than we had projected in April.

The Bank of Canada expects a positive economic picture going into next year, Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen told the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce today.

Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses how automation could affect productivity and the Bank’s monetary policy.