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Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2021 - For the period ended March 31, 2021

The Canadian financial system proved resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic—thanks to strong risk management and unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support.

A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising living standards. In our Financial System Review, we identify the main vulnerabilities and risks in the financial system in Canada and explain how they have evolved over the past year.

This article presents the key results from the spring 2021 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted from February 22 to March 12, 2021. The survey included a special section on commercial real estate.

The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2020. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Tiff Macklem.

As the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank is forecasting growth of around 6 ½ percent this year, slowing to about 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.

Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven, with firms tied to high-contact services facing ongoing challenges.

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) collects respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the first quarter of 2021 was conducted from February 15 to March 4, 2021. This period coincides with news of temporary delays in COVID-19 vaccinations in Canada and growing risks from new variants of the virus. The survey was completed before the most recent wave of infections and lockdowns in the largest provinces. Like the previous three surveys, the 2021 first-quarter survey included questions on the impacts of the pandemic and the measures to contain its spread. This survey also asked respondents about their expected economic and social activities once the majority of Canadians have received their COVID-19 vaccine. Similar to the report for the fourth quarter of 2020, this report also provides some details by demographic characteristics.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions have allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. We present updated details of debt payment deferrals by borrowers through to December 2020.

While a second wave of COVID-19 is hurting Canadians now, the economy should rebound strongly later in the year. The Bank is forecasting growth of around 4 percent this year and close to 5 percent in 2022.