October 19, 2026 Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations 11:30 (ET) The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
October 19, 2026 The Bank of Canada releases the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, October 19, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 17, 2026 Media roundtable with Governor Macklem Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, held a virtual roundtable with journalists today from the sidelines of the IMF meetings in Bangkok. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 16, 2026 Fireside Chat: Michelle Alexopoulos, External Deputy Governor Sobey School of Business at Saint Mary's University Halifax, NS Content Type(s): Upcoming events
October 16, 2026 Panel: Tiff Macklem, Governor International Monetary Fund (IMF) Bangkok, Thailand Content Type(s): Upcoming events
Artificial Intelligence and Financial Tail Risks Staff working paper 2026-40 Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrea Ugolini, Juan C. Reboredo This paper examines how market-perceived AI exposure is associated with extreme financial-sector gains and losses across five markets, using Expected Shortfall and skewness decompositions to distinguish AI-sector, macroeconomic, systemic and financial scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Beyond "Looking Through": Monetary Policy Responses and Communication Under Supply-Driven Inflation Staff working paper 2026-39 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang Using a controlled macroeconomic experiment, we compare monetary policy rules that differ in how much they look through inflation: a Lean-Against policy with strong response to inflation and a Look-Through policy with less strong response. We combine each rule with communication protocols that vary the information the central bank releases about its policy response. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Distributional Consequences of Commodity Booms Staff working paper 2026-38 Emilio Colombi Positive commodity price shocks reduce labor income inequality in commodity-exporting economies by compressing the skill premium, as unskilled-labor-intensive sectors such as construction expand faster than skill-intensive services. A multisector small-open-economy model shows how saving or spending commodity windfalls can reinforce or moderate this decline in inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, J, J3, J30, Q, Q3, Q33 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Offshoring and Voting Patterns in the US Staff working paper 2026-37 Anna Maria Mayda, Lindsay Oldenski, Walter Steingress This paper studies the impact of offshoring by US firms on voting patterns for incumbents in the US. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D7, D72, F, F2, F23, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Canada’s Cross-Border Carry Trade Staff analytical paper 2026-54 Bruno Feunou, Rishi Vala, Andreas Uthemann, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canada has spent more than its national income for much of the post-Global Financial Crisis period. Yet favourable asset-price and exchange-rate movements have raised Canada’s net foreign assets. Since 1990, cumulative valuation gains were about three times the current-account deficit, relaxing the adjustment needed to stabilize Canada’s external position. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F31, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness