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768
result(s)
Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production
Staff Working Paper 2022-36
Johan Brannlund,
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Matthew Krutkiewicz
Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Climate change,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C23,
Q,
Q4,
Q40,
Q48,
Q5,
Q54
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?
Staff Working Paper 2022-34
Monica Jain,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Xu Zhang
This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
E3,
E31
Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions
Staff Analytical Note 2022-9
David Cimon,
Adrian Walton
We summarize the theoretical model of central bank asset purchases developed in Cimon and Walton (2022). The model helps us understand how asset purchases ease pressures on investment dealers to restore market conditions in a crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1,
L10
The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14
Tony Chernis,
Chris D'Souza,
Kevin MacLean,
Tasha Reader,
Joshua Slive,
Farrukh Suvankulov
This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E32
Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market
Staff Analytical Note 2022-8
Jessie Ziqing Chen,
Johannes Chen,
Shamarthi Ghosh,
Manu Pandey,
Adrian Walton
We assess whether more central clearing would enhance the resilience of Canadian fixed-income markets. Our analysis estimates the potential benefits of balance sheet netting under scenarios where central clearing is expanded to new participants.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit risk management,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
G,
G1,
G12,
G2,
G21,
G29
Transmission of Cyber Risk Through the Canadian Wholesale Payment System
Staff Working Paper 2022-23
Anneke Kosse,
Zhentong Lu
This paper studies how the impact of a cyber attack that paralyzes one or multiple banks' ability to send payments would transmit to other banks through the Canadian wholesale payment system. Based on historical payment data, we simulate a wide range of scenarios and evaluate the total payment disruption in the system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C49,
E,
E4,
E42,
E47,
G,
G2,
G21
Expectation-Driven Term Structure of Equity and Bond Yields
Staff Working Paper 2022-21
Ming Zeng,
Guihai Zhao
Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
G,
G0,
G00,
G1,
G12
Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-12
Tony Chernis,
Taylor Webley
We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E3,
E7
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies
Staff Working Paper 2022-20
Michelle Alexopoulos,
Xinfen Han,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Xu Zhang
We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E7,
E71