Rodrigo Sekkel - Latest

• Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

  Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32

• International Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2014-57 Stefan Klößner, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Using the Baker et al. (2013) index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries, this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty. We find that spillovers account for slightly more than one-fourth of the dynamics of policy uncertainty in these countries, with this share rising to one-half during the financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, D, D8, D80, F, F4, F42

• Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-40 Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries’ balance sheets to a wide range of economic activity measures in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

• Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination

  Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel

  A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53