Claudia Godbout is the Director of the Real Sector Stability Division in the Financial Stability Department (FSD). Her work focuses on assessing vulnerabilities and risks in key sectors that drive credit demand in Canada, including households, businesses, and the housing market.
Claudia began her career in 2008 in the International Department where she held several roles and helped develop the global projection model. She then moved to the Canadian Department in 2014 and became the director of the Projection division in 2018.
Her main areas of interest include macroeconomics, forecasting, financial stability, and international topics. Claudia holds a BA in mathematics and economics and a master’s degree in economics from Laval University.
We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances.
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.
This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances […]
