Posts

• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Risks

  The prospect of wide-ranging US import tariffs is the most important risk to the outlook. Given the fast-evolving situation and the high degree of uncertainty, the Bank has chosen not to include new tariffs in the projection.
• January 20, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• January 20, 2025

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  Results from the CSCE show that consumer sentiment improved this quarter, mainly due to recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further cuts ahead. Consumers reported stronger spending plans. Still, they reported that high prices of many goods and services, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs continue to weigh on spending decisions. Consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened and is now slightly below the survey average. Consumers’ inflation expectations have largely returned to historical norms.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• January 20, 2025

  The Bank of Canada releases the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, January 20, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories

• Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

  Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant

  This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
• January 17, 2025

  Bank of Canada releases review of exceptional policy actions taken during the pandemic

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada’s exceptional policy actions during the COVID-19 pandemic provided important support for the economy during the unprecedented shock, says a review published today.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• January 17, 2025

  Release of the Bank of Canada’s review of exceptional pandemic measures

  On Friday, January 17, 2025, the Bank of Canada will publish its report on the exceptional policy actions undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The documents will also include a review by an external panel of experts, and a response from the Bank’s Governing Council.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• January 17, 2025

  Review of the Bank of Canada’s Exceptional Policy Actions During the Pandemic: Executive summary

  This review looks at the effectiveness of the Bank’s exceptional policy actions during the pandemic. It also draws several lessons that will help shape future decisions should these tools be needed again.

  Content Type(s): Background materials

• Tech Reluctance: Fostering Empathy for Canadians Facing Challenges with Digital Systems

  Staff discussion paper 2025-2 Sebastian Hernandez, Helena Wang, Badr Omrane, Vera Roberts, David Pereyra

  We find that individuals who require help performing banking tasks or who are reluctant to adopt technology avoid digital payment systems they expect to lack usability. Addressing these issues through standard accessibility practices, live assistance and thoughtful interface design can enhance user interaction and trust.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, C, C9, C90, D, D8, D83, O, O3, O33, Y, Y8, Y80 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

• Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks

  Staff working paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert

  I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models