The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent.
We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
As the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank is forecasting growth of around 6 ½ percent this year, slowing to about 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.
As previously announced, the Bank of Canada (the Bank) launched on April 1, 2020 a program to purchase Government of Canada securities in the secondary market – the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP).
Firms are at the forefront of adopting new technology. Using survey data from a global network of central banks, we assess the effects of digitalization on firms’ pricing and employment decisions.
Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven, with firms tied to high-contact services facing ongoing challenges.