Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened significantly, and consumers have become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over the past several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. They expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living, and this has pushed up their inflation expectations.

Results from the CSCE show that consumer sentiment improved this quarter, mainly due to recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further cuts ahead. Consumers reported stronger spending plans. Still, they reported that high prices of many goods and services, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs continue to weigh on spending decisions. Consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened and is now slightly below the survey average. Consumers’ inflation expectations have largely returned to historical norms.

Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation and their expectations for inflation over the next year have declined this quarter, although they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Perceptions of financial stress have improved. And, given recent interest rate cuts and lower inflation, fewer consumers reported reducing their spending. However, consumers expect interest rates to remain elevated, which is affecting their spending decisions. Perceptions of the labour market have weakened further, with young consumers reporting a more pronounced deterioration than others. Still, overall, job prospects are close to survey averages.

Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees.