Posts

• July 21, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2025

  Tariffs and related uncertainty continue to weigh on firms, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. While overall sales outlooks remain weak, outlooks for exports have recovered somewhat, with worst-case trade scenarios appearing less likely. Firms remain cautious in their hiring and investment plans. Some businesses reported cost pressures from tariffs, but competition and weak demand are constraining price pass-through to customers. In this context, firms’ short-term inflation expectations are lower than they were last quarter.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• July 21, 2025

  The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, July 21, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 21, 2025

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2025

  Overall, results of the second-quarter 2025 survey show that the CSCE indicator—a measure developed to summarize the opinions of Canadian consumers—declined again this quarter as spending intentions continued to weaken due to the persistent threats of tariffs and related uncertainty. Consumers still see the labour market as soft, and their fear of job loss is elevated. The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behaviour. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have changed little since increasing markedly in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter, more consumers cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• July 21, 2025

  Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  10:30 (ET)
  The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Upcoming events
• July 17, 2025

  Discontinuation of one-month treasury bill

  As announced in the 2025-26 Debt Management Strategy, the Government of Canada will be discontinuing the one-month treasury bill. This is in line with the policy intent to introduce it on a temporary basis as previously outlined in the federal 2024 Budget and a market notice. The last one-month treasury bill auction will occur on 29 July 2025.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
• July 17, 2025

  How economic uncertainty disrupts investment

  

  Business investment plays a pivotal role in economic growth.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Expectations, International topics, Price stability, Productivity, Trade integration

• Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West

  We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71

• How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu

  We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R20

• The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang

  Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23

• Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-19 Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo, Thomas Thorn

  We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23