Posts

• March 12, 2025

  How Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict

  To better understand how the trade conflict initiated by the US administration is affecting the economic decisions of Canadians, the Bank of Canada has enhanced its consultations with businesses and households.
• March 12, 2025

  Appendix: Survey questions

  This Appendix presents the text of selected questions asked as part of surveys that the Bank of Canada conducted during the first quarter of 2025, including the Business Leaders’ Pulse, the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.
• March 10, 2025

  Price check: Inflation in Canada

  Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Why prices change, and what it means for the economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability

• The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking

  Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl

  Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28

• Estimating the inflation risk premium

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-9 Bruno Feunou, Gitanjali Kumar

  Is there a risk of de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the near term? We estimate the inflation risk premium using traditional asset pricing models to answer this question. The risk of de-anchoring is elevated compared with the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and is higher in the United States than in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C58, G, G1, G12

• Natural disasters and inflation in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes

  How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54

• Crisis facilities as a source of public information

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-7 Lerby Ergun

  During the COVID-19 financial market crisis, central banks introduced programs to support liquidity in important core funding markets. As well as acting as a backstop to market prices, these programs produce useful trading data on prevailing market conditions. When summary information from this data is shared publicly, it can help market participants understand current conditions and aid the recovery of market functioning.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14

• Assessing the Impact of Demographic Composition on Productivity

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-3 Justin-Damien Guénette, Lin Shao

  We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age group, with middle-aged individuals (aged 40 to 49) being the most productive.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J1, J11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
• February 28, 2025

  Pickle Planet Podcast

  

  Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada
  Interview with the Pickle Planet Podcast

  Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
• February 28, 2025

  Bank of Canada Media Interview – Pickle Planet Podcast

  Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, spoke to Jenna Morton and Tosh Taylor on the Pickle Planet Podcast.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories