November 14, 1997
International topics
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Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach
Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level.